Out of the 17 predictions we made on THE RECORD last year, 16 came true
We predicted…
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The new bull market (called as early as Dec 2022)
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The % return of the S&P 500 (between 20-30%)
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The containment of the banking crisis (and that many bank stocks were a buy)
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The huge year-end rally from the late October low
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The outperformance of homebuilding stocks and the Russell 2000 during the year-end rally
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And many more…
Overall, we had a success rate of 94% in 2023...
Note: we don’t expect to maintain that level of accuracy going forward…
In fact, we would be extremely surprised if we did…
Our expectations are quite a bit lower…
The goal isn’t to be perfect, it’s simply to show you it is possible to forecast the economy with more accuracy than most people believe is possible.
We don’t have to bat at 94% to do that!
Financial analysts, economics and expert lack accountability.
That's why we created THE RECORD
This is the place where we write our market commentary and log our predictions – past and present…
We do this to showcase the predictive power of the arcane, hyper-valuable financial models we use to forecast the market…
But also, so that we can practice the Arcanica Financial value of radical accountability.
Here’s what we mean…
Because THE RECORD has a running tally of our predictions, verified by third-party documentation…
It means that anyone can see the success (or lack thereof) of our approach to the market…
If we don’t do well, we won’t be able to hide it…
That’s a level of transparency we think is unique in the financial publishing industry.
And we’re proud to say it hasn’t backfired on us (yet 😂)…
The edge that helped us ~2X the S&P 500 in 2023 (and may have helped you do even better)
THE RECORD isn’t just a log of our economics predictions.
In the hands of the right investor, it’s an incredible moneymaking tool.
For example, we used the predictions and the ideas etched on THE RECORD in 2023 to help us make a total return on our portfolio of 47%.
That’s ~2X what the S&P 500 did... yet we didn’t own a single one of the Magnificent 7.
We had more than half our money in index funds, with a large portion in sector ETFs (related to homebuilding stocks, industrials and even regional banking. Yes, regional banking…)
We believe that a better investor than us – someone who has the time and skills to pick the top individual stocks from within our favorite sector ETFs – would have been able to make even more…
We also believe that skilled options traders would likely have been able to use our directional forecasts to make extra money too…
Our overall point is: we believe a better investor could have used THE RECORD to do even better than us…
How to get access to THE RECORD
Access to THE RECORD is by application only.
We want to make sure you’re crystal clear on what you’re getting – and how you can use it to increase your investment returns before you make the decision to come aboard.
If you’re interested in finding out more, please click the button below and follow the prompts.
There are currently 61 predictions on THE RECORD – completed and ongoing...
Prediction #1: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#2: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#3: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#4: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#5: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
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#7: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
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#9: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#10: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#11: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#12: Feb 2023: That we were in a strong new bull market and the date it began. CORRECT.
#13: May 2023: The Dow’s return in 2023: between 20-30%. INCORRECT.
#14: May 2023: The S&P 500’s return in 2023: between 20-30%. CORRECT.
#15: May 2023: For the stock market, the year 2023 will be like the year 2003. CORRECT (Both were recovery years with significant March lows. 2003 gain: 26.38%. 2023 gain: 24.8%).
#16: May 2023: People who don’t position themselves for the bull market will lose big. CORRECT.
#17: May 2023: Banking issues in 2023 are sector specific, there are no systemic issues. CORRECT.
#18: May 2023: Many banking stocks are a buy right now, and will outperform the market from here. CORRECT.
#19: Feb 2023: Bear market sentiment to persist until at least Q3 2023, despite bull market. CORRECT.
#20: May 2023: Any dips/corrections in the market through 2023 to be called “bull traps”. CORRECT.
#21: Feb 2023: Majority to finally embrace new bull market by Q1 2024. CORRECT.
#22: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#23: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#24: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#25: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#26: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#27: July 2023: We’ll see a historic boom in housing, industrial and manufacturing construction. CORRECT.
#28: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#29: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#30: October 2023: Correction from July 2023-October 2023 is merely a retracement/consolidation/correction and not the start of a bigger crash. CORRECT.
#31: October 2023: Huge year-end rally incoming. CORRECT.
#32: October 2023: We are at the lows for this correction (from July 2023-October 2023), which means it’s buying time. CORRECT.
#33: October 2023: The year-end rally will finally turn sentiment over to the bulls. CORRECT.
#34: October 2023: The Russell 2000 will outperform during 2023’s year-end rally. CORRECT.
#35: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#36: October 2023: Homebuilding stocks will lead the year-end rally. CORRECT.
#37: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
#38: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
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#61: [HIDDEN] Ongoing.
If you’re interested in finding out more, please click the button below and follow the prompts.
So anyone who doesn't know Roubini has a terrible forecasting track record is misled into giving his opinion more weight than it deserves...
Now, Nouriel is a smart guy…
And I’m not saying that all of his analysis has zero value…
My point is that his inaccurate model for forecasting the market is allowed to persist and influence people when it should probably be consigned to the dustbin of history…
Yet, unfortunately, this is a common story.
In fact, you could say it’s the standard in the profession of economics, market forecasting and analysis…
An analyst makes one big correct call, and receives almost a lifetime of reverence for their ability to see “black swans”…
Why does this happen?
Well, we believe it’s a combination of fear bias, sensationalist reporting from the mainstream media and the big one: the corruption of the field of economics…
We’ll have time to go into all this in greater detail another time…
Yet the important thing to note right now is that…
THE RECORD
A running tally of our economic predictions
In 2008, Nouriel Roubini rose to fame as one of the few economists who predicted the Great Recession…
He was called a seer, with his latest book selling like hotcakes as he made dozens of media appearances…
In short, it was a massive boon for his career.
Yet what the mainstream media left out was that Roubini had also predicted recessions in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 – and he was wrong on all counts…
And not just a bit wrong…
He was very wrong…
The economy went gangbusters through many of those years…
Yet his predictions after the Great Recession weren’t any better either.
He missed the huge rebound of the American economy and was still calling for a meltdown well into the 2010s…
Despite this, Nouriel Roubini’s opinion is still rolled out by the mainstream media accompanied by the title “the man who predicted the Great Recession…”
